Refract Funding Research

Trade the process, not the story.

Practical, source-backed guides to forecasting, price, execution, risk, paper trading, and funded prediction-market programs. Every example states its assumptions; no strategy promises a profit.

All guides

Start with the question you need to answer

Education16 min

How to Make Money on Kalshi: Probability, Costs, and Risk

There is no guaranteed way to profit. A durable process starts with better probability estimates, then subtracts fees and execution costs and limits the damage when the estimate is wrong.

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Strategy14 min

Polymarket strategies: a probability-first trading framework

A strategy is not a prediction with conviction. It is a repeatable process for finding a price you believe is wrong, paying less than the edge is worth, and surviving when your estimate is wrong.

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Strategy17 min

Kalshi Trading Strategies: A Rules-First Framework

A practical strategy is a complete decision system: define the contract, estimate a probability range, demand a price cushion, plan execution, cap correlated risk, and measure calibration.

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Education14 min

How to make money on Polymarket: the mechanics, costs, and risks

Profits can come from buying an outcome below its eventual value or selling at a better price before resolution—but neither route is reliable without an edge that survives costs and mistakes.

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Funded accounts14 min

Sports Betting Prop Firms: What the Term Means and How to Compare Programs

“Sports betting prop firm” is an imprecise label. This guide separates sportsbooks, exchanges, prediction markets, and simulated performance programs—then shows how to evaluate the last category without confusing a simulated account with a real betting bankroll.

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Funded accounts14 min

Funded Sports Betting Accounts: Rules, Risks, and What “Funded” Really Means

A “funded” label can describe real backing, a promotional balance, or a simulated account tied to a performance program. Before buying an evaluation, identify which one it is and model the complete rule lifecycle.

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Strategy15 min

Prediction Market Strategies: A Venue-Neutral Research and Risk Framework

A durable prediction-market process separates forecasting from trade selection, then applies execution, resolution, correlation, and sizing controls. Use this framework before adapting tactics to any particular venue.

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Practice environment

Turn the reading into a reviewable record.

The free simulator references supported live market books while keeping user orders, balances, and fills simulated. Choose a platform-specific paper-trading guide before starting.

Kalshi paper tradingContract rules, book, sizing, journalPolymarket paper tradingForecast, spread, depth, calibrationPrediction market simulatorWhat credible practice should measure

Editorial standard

Sources, assumptions, and limits stay visible.

Strategy

Build forecasts, evaluate price, and protect the process from avoidable execution and sizing errors.

Education

Understand how prediction-market economics, paper trading, and platform mechanics work before adding stakes.

Funded accounts

Evaluate prop-style programs, simulated accounts, rules, and claims with a due-diligence framework.

Articles are written by Refract Funding Research, reviewed by the Refract Funding editorial team, and dated with their latest fact check. Refract Funding is independent of Kalshi and Polymarket. All Refract user trading is simulated.