Live reference books.
Simulated decisions.
Practice forecasting, execution, and risk across supported Kalshi and Polymarket markets without sending a venue order.
01
A simulator should test decisions, not decorate predictions
A prediction market simulator turns a forecast into a timestamped, sized, and reviewable trade without placing real money at risk in that simulated trade.
Good prediction-market practice sits between forecasting and execution. A forecast asks what probability is reasonable. A trading decision asks whether the available price leaves enough margin after uncertainty, spread, fees, liquidity, and the chance that the contract rules have been misunderstood.
Refract Funding brings supported Kalshi and Polymarket reference markets into one simulated workspace. A user can inspect markets and place simulated orders without connecting a venue trading account. Refract is independent of both venues and data may be delayed, incomplete, or unavailable.
Refract Funding is independent of Kalshi and Polymarket. It uses their published market data as a simulation reference and does not send user orders to either venue.
02
The seven features that make practice credible
- Real contract language. Practice begins with the actual question, deadline, and resolution source.
- Timestamped market context. The review preserves what was knowable when the decision was made.
- Two-sided prices. Bid, ask, and depth matter more than a convenient midpoint.
- Limit discipline. The trader chooses the worst acceptable price rather than accepting a hypothetical perfect fill.
- Conservative cost modeling. Costs are stated and uncertain assumptions receive a buffer.
- Portfolio controls. Correlated positions and maximum total loss are visible together.
- Unedited history. Canceled, unfilled, losing, and unresolved decisions remain part of the record.
03
Practice Kalshi and Polymarket without confusing their rules
Both venues express market beliefs through priced outcomes, but their contract structures, fee mechanics, order interfaces, eligibility, and resolution processes are not interchangeable. The official venue documentation and the rules attached to each market control.
| Practice path | Start with | Deep guide |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi markets | Contract wording, event rules, displayed book | Kalshi paper trading |
| Polymarket markets | Market description, resolution source, displayed book | Polymarket paper trading |
| Venue-neutral process | Base rates, calibration, expected value, sizing | Prediction-market strategies |
04
Score the process on more than profit
A trader can make money after a poor forecast and lose after a disciplined one. Review five separate dimensions: calibration of probability estimates; price paid relative to the contemporaneous book; modeled execution quality; adherence to size and correlation limits; and correct interpretation of resolution rules. P&L belongs in the review, but it cannot diagnose the process by itself.
| Dimension | Question | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Were probabilities calibrated over many decisions? | Timestamped forecast bins |
| Entry | Did the price preserve the estimated edge? | Bid, ask, limit, and fill |
| Risk | Was loss acceptable if the thesis failed? | Pre-trade size and portfolio cap |
| Rules | Did the thesis match the settlement wording? | Saved resolution source and notes |
| Discipline | Were revisions driven by evidence rather than P&L? | Dated journal changes |
05
Practice is free; the Evaluation is a separate decision
Refract's free simulator is for learning and process development. The optional Evaluation is a paid simulated challenge with published targets and risk rules. A passing result can lead to funded-account review, but does not guarantee funded access or a payout. Read the full rulebook before buying an attempt.
This material is educational, not investment advice. No strategy or hypothetical example guarantees a profit. Trading, balances, positions, and fills on Refract Funding are simulated.
06
Primary references
Review current mechanics at the official Kalshi Help Center, Kalshi documentation, Polymarket documentation, and Polymarket Help Center. Refract's methodology and limitations are in the rulebook and Risk Disclaimer.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
Is the Refract Funding simulator free?
The simulator and competition can be used without purchasing an Evaluation. Evaluation attempts are separate paid products with published rules.
Does the simulator place orders on Kalshi or Polymarket?
No. Every user order, fill, balance, and position remains simulated inside Refract Funding. It does not send user orders to either venue.
Can a prediction market simulator reproduce live execution exactly?
No. A model can reference displayed prices and depth, but latency, queue position, data quality, changing liquidity, costs, and behavior under real stakes can produce materially different live results.
Can simulated profits qualify for a real payout?
Only an approved funded simulated account can make eligible simulated profit available for a conditional USDC payout under the current program rules. Free-simulator balances are practice balances and are not withdrawable.
Important: All trading, balances, positions, and fills on Refract Funding—including in the simulator, Evaluations, and funded accounts—are simulated. No real money is placed at risk in a simulated trade, although Evaluation fees are real payments. An Evaluation fee buys access to a skill challenge; it is not a deposit, investment, market stake, or trading capital. Refract Funding is independent of Kalshi and Polymarket; references to those venues do not imply endorsement.
Passing an Evaluation does not guarantee a funded account or payout. Funded access and payouts, where offered, depend on the program rules, eligibility, identity and fair-play review, regional availability, and approval. Market data and simulated results may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Refract Funding is not a broker, exchange, or investment adviser, and nothing on the service is investment advice. Adults 18+ only; additional age or location restrictions may apply.