Test the forecast.
Simulate the execution.

01

What Polymarket paper trading should test

Polymarket paper trading is the practice of recording and simulating trades against Polymarket market data without submitting a real venue order.

The useful question is not “Would this market have won?” It is “Could I identify a mispriced probability, enter at an available price, size it safely, interpret the resolution rules correctly, and follow the plan?” A realistic journal keeps those decisions separate so a lucky settlement cannot hide a weak process.

Refract Funding references published Polymarket and Kalshi data for simulated trading. Every Refract user order stays within the simulation. It does not connect to a user's venue wallet, move a user's funds, or send an order to Polymarket.

Refract Funding is independent of Kalshi and Polymarket. It uses their published market data as a simulation reference and does not send user orders to either venue.

02

Paper trade from a written forecast, not a chart reaction

1. Parse the market. Read the full question, dates, resolution source, clarifications, and invalid-market conditions.
2. Build an outside view. Start with a base rate or reference class before consuming the loudest current narrative.
3. Write a probability range. A range such as 57% to 62% makes uncertainty visible; pick a central estimate only after identifying the major swing factors.
4. Read both sides of the book. Last trade and midpoint do not guarantee the next executable price or available size.
5. Set limit and loss. Choose the highest entry price and total stake that keep the idea attractive after plausible costs and estimation error.
6. Review on schedule. Record new information, forecast revisions, fills, exits, and settlement without deleting the original thesis.

The Polymarket strategies guide expands this workflow into research, calibration, execution, and portfolio controls.

03

Worked example: measure the edge after the spread

Imagine a binary market whose Yes book shows a 61¢ bid and 64¢ ask. Your independently recorded estimate is 68%. A simulated marketable buy at 64¢ has four points of estimated gross edge, not seven: your estimate must be compared with the ask you could buy, not the bid or midpoint.

If Yes later settles, that single result does not prove the 68% forecast was well calibrated. Calibration emerges across many comparable forecasts: events assigned roughly 68% should resolve Yes at roughly that rate over a sufficiently large, honestly recorded sample.

04

Four simulation gaps to keep visible

• Queue position. Seeing a price does not establish where a real resting order would sit or whether it would fill.
• Fast-moving depth. A displayed quantity can change before an order arrives, especially around news.
• Costs and infrastructure. Venue fees, network costs, funding rails, and operational constraints may differ from a model and can change.
• Behavior under real stakes. Paper traders do not experience the same fear, urgency, or temptation to override limits.

Counter those gaps by using conservative fills, recording unfilled orders, modeling a cost buffer, setting hard size limits, and reviewing process metrics such as calibration and entry quality alongside P&L.

05

How Refract Funding uses Polymarket reference data

The free simulator provides a place to browse supported markets and place simulated orders. The separate paid Evaluation applies published performance and risk rules to a simulated challenge account. A trader who passes may be considered for a funded simulated account, subject to eligibility, identity, fair-play, regional, and approval requirements.

This is different from trading a personal Polymarket wallet. Refract does not give the user venue credentials, execute the user's market orders, or represent that simulated buying power is a deposit. Read how the Polymarket prop-firm path works and the complete rules before considering an Evaluation.

This material is educational, not investment advice. No strategy or hypothetical example guarantees a profit. Trading, balances, positions, and fills on Refract Funding are simulated.

06

Use the market's live rules as the source of truth

Confirm current venue mechanics through the official Polymarket documentation and Help Center. Read the specific market description and resolution source before every practice trade. Refract's simulator and funded-program conditions are documented in the rulebook, Terms, and Risk Disclaimer.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions